The folks at the Spallation Neutron Source are trying to predict failure. In fact, they've got a betting pool going, although I've been assured there's no money involved. It's just a friendly professional challenge. Let me explain. One of the key components at the SNS - OK, probably the key component - is the 20-ton mercury target, which is pounded 60 times a second by a powerful proton beam. Each pulse results in hundreds of trillions of neutrons being released from the liquid heavy metal.